The Shrinking Domain of the Persian Leopard: A Data-Driven Forecast

A new study projects that nearly 40% of the suitable habitat for the Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Fars Province could vanish by 2070. Historically, mapping the range of this elusive predator proved notoriously difficult, often relying on fragmented sighting records or static vegetation maps that offered little predictive power regarding future environmental pressures or prey dynamics.

The research team employed MaxEnt software to model habitat suitability, integrating variables such as topography, anthropogenic factors, and land use. Crucially, they layered in the distribution of key prey species, specifically wild goats and sheep. Approximately 12.53% of Fars Province—roughly 15,381 square kilometres—is currently classified as suitable. However, when subjected to General Circulation Models (MRI-ESM2-0 and BCC-CSM2-MR) under different climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), the data indicates a severe contraction of these habitable zones.

Technical contrast: Static mapping vs dynamic biotic modelling

Traditional habitat assessments often relied on static abiotic markers—elevation, slope, and water proximity—to estimate where a species might survive. This approach assumes that if the terrain is correct, the animal will be present. The methodology used here, however, contrasts sharply by integrating biotic interactions and dynamic climate pathways. While older methods might identify a forest as 'suitable' based purely on vegetation cover, they fail to account for the metabolic necessity of calories. By incorporating the projected distribution of prey, this model filters out 'empty' habitats where the leopard would starve. Furthermore, applying climate scenarios transforms the analysis from a present-day snapshot into a longitudinal stress test. This shift reveals that territory technically suitable today may become functionally useless if temperature shifts disrupt the prey base, a distinction often missed in simpler, static analyses.

Persian leopard conservation strategies under pressure

The results indicate a projected loss of suitable habitat ranging from 23.46% to 39.81% by 2070. This is a significant reduction. It suggests that current protected areas, established under previous climatic conditions, may not serve their purpose in the coming decades. The study implies that conservation boundaries must be fluid, adapting to the shifting ranges of both the predator and its prey. Reliance on fixed geographical borders without accounting for thermal shifts and prey migration could leave the species exposed in increasingly inhospitable environments.