Rising Heat Threatens to Wipe Out the Endangered Hainan Gymnure's Mountain Home

The endangered Hainan gymnure, a small mammal native to China’s Hainan Island, faces a precarious future as global temperatures rise. Researchers recently utilised ecological niche modelling to map the species' current and future distribution, assessing how distinct climate scenarios might alter its fate between now and 2085.

Currently, the gymnure occupies roughly 32.75% of the island, primarily inhabiting central, high-altitude regions. The study identified elevation and annual mean temperature as the critical factors defining this habitat. However, the projections are alarming: suitable living space is predicted to shrink under all three tested carbon emission scenarios.

The most extreme outlook—known as the SSP5-8.5 scenario—suggests that soaring temperatures in high-elevation zones could nearly eliminate the gymnure’s habitat entirely. As these mountains heat up, the cool refuges the species relies upon disappear. These findings provide essential data for conservationists attempting to develop adaptive strategies to save this tropical island dweller from extinction.