Predicting Carbon Sink Stability via Land use and land cover change (LULC)

Current satellite monitoring often lacks the predictive resolution to quantify decadal shifts in tropical vegetation before they become permanent. This research, currently awaiting peer review on Springer Science and Business Media LLC, addresses this gap by mapping forty years of environmental shifts in Southwestern Nigeria.

Analysing Land use and land cover change (LULC)

Researchers utilised USGS Landsat imagery from 1986 to 2016, with projections extending to 2026. Using Maximum Likelihood classification, the team measured a decline of 17,743 km² in savannah woodland. Simultaneously, agricultural zones grew by 3,407 km², indicating a shift from natural carbon sinks to managed food production.

Future Applications for Carbon Management

These preliminary findings suggest that by 2030, regional climate mitigation will depend on precise spatial planning. This data enables:

• Precision reforestation targeting specific lost corridors.
• Optimised agricultural zoning to prevent further forest loss.
• Enhanced carbon credit verification using historical baselines.

In the next decade, this predictive approach could allow governments to organise conservation efforts with surgical accuracy. By identifying high-pressure zones today, we can preserve the carbon sequestration capacity of the next generation.