Genetic Modification in Agriculture: A Strategic Bibliometric Analysis of Global Trends (1994–2024)

Thirty years of data confirm a geopolitical bifurcation in biotechnology: the United States and China have formed a dual-core monopoly over innovation. The analysis tracks genetic modification in agriculture from early tobacco experiments to the absolute dominance of CRISPR-Cas9. It suggests the sector is rapidly consolidating around synthetic biology and digitised breeding.

These results were observed under controlled laboratory conditions, so real-world performance may differ.

The Problem: Yield vs. Ecology

Food systems are under siege. Population growth demands higher caloric output, yet climate degradation limits arable land. The legacy of the first Green Revolution—heavy chemical dependence—is no longer sustainable. The sector requires a method to decouple yield increases from ecological damage. The study highlights that earlier tools lacked the necessary precision to solve this equation without collateral genetic noise. Traditional breeding is too slow; early transgenics were too blunt.

Trends in Genetic Modification in Agriculture

Researchers conducted a comprehensive bibliometric review of worldwide literature published between 1994 and 2024. They mapped collaboration networks and citation density to visualise the industry's evolution. The findings measure a distinct split in international relations. The United States anchors a high-density cluster, integrating tightly with Japan, Korea, and the United Kingdom. In contrast, China leverages the Belt and Road Initiative to diffuse technology throughout Southeast Asia and Africa. This suggests a strategic divergence: the US focuses on established high-tech alliances, while China builds infrastructure dependency in emerging markets to expand its sphere of influence.

Mechanism: The Three Phases

The technology lifecycle has not been linear. The data delineates a three-stage evolution of increasing precision:

• Transgenic Origins: Agrobacterium-mediated transformation provided the proof of concept. Tobacco plants served as the initial testbed for inserting foreign DNA.
• Gene Silencing: The implementation of RNA interference (RNAi) allowed researchers to suppress undesirable traits rather than just adding new ones.
• Genome Editing: CRISPR-Cas9 emerged as the apex technology. The bibliometric data reveals a massive spike in CRISPR-related citations, eclipsing previous methods. This shift indicates a move from random insertion to precise architectural changes within the genome.

Impact: The Second Green Revolution

The prevalence of CRISPR indicates an industry-wide demand for refinement. The authors predict the future lies in "intelligent breeding"—the merger of information technology and biology. Germplasm digitisation will likely convert seeds into data assets, allowing for simulation before cultivation. Multi-gene editing suggests crops will be engineered for complex traits, such as drought resistance and nutrient density, simultaneously rather than sequentially. This represents the infrastructure for a Second Green Revolution. Food security is becoming a function of intellectual property and computational capacity. Nations controlling these patents will likely dictate global food standards in the coming decades.